Leaked Invasion Plan Reveals 4 Assumptions Putin's Regime Got WrongÀ¯ÃâµÈ ħ·« °èȹ, Ǫƾ Á¤±ÇÀÌ Æ²·È´Ù´Â 4°¡Áö °ø°³[Newsweek] 2022/12/2 AT 2:03 PM EST
ABritish think tank says it has obtained a four-part plan signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin outlining how the country's army would be able to overwhelm and seize military control of neighboring Ukraine within a 10-day window.¿µ±¹ ½ÌÅ©ÅÊÅ©´Â ºí¶óµð¹Ì¸£ Ǫƾ ·¯½Ã¾Æ ´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ ¼¸íÇÑ 4´Ü°è °èȹÀ» ÀÔ¼öÇß´Ù°í ¹àÇû´Ù. ºí¶óµð¹Ì¸£ Ǫƾ ·¯½Ã¾Æ ´ëÅë·ÉÀº 10ÀÏ ¾È¿¡ ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª±ºÀÌ ÀÌ¿ô ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ±º»çÀû ÅëÁ¦±ÇÀ» ¾î¶»°Ô ¾ÐµµÇÏ°í Àå¾ÇÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ»Áö¸¦ ¼³¸íÇß´Ù.According to copies of orders issued to a range of Russian units outlined in a recent report by the Royal United Services Institute, the Russian military had plans to stun the enemy with overwhelming firepower, using an aggressive posture to force concessions from the international community to avert greater bloodshed, destabilize Ukrainian leadership, and clear the way for the Russian annexation of the country by August.·Î¾â À¯³ªÀÌƼµå ¼ºñ½º ÀνºÆ¼Æ©Æ®ÀÇ ÃÖ±Ù º¸°í¼¿¡ ¿ä¾àµÈ ÀÏ·ÃÀÇ ·¯½Ã¾Æ ºÎ´ë¿¡ ³»·ÁÁø ¸í·É »çº»¿¡ µû¸£¸é ·¯½Ã¾Æ ±ºÀº ¾ÐµµÀû ÀÎ È·ÂÀ¸·Î ÀûÀ» ±âÀý½ÃÅ°°í °ø°ÝÀûÀÎ ÀÚ¼¼·Î ±¹Á¦»çȸÀÇ ¾çº¸¸¦ °¿ä ´õ Å« À¯Ç÷ »çŸ¦ ÇÇÇÏ°í ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª Áöµµ·ÂÀ» ºÒ¾ÈÁ¤ÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µé°í 8¿ù±îÁö ·¯½Ã¾Æ ÇÕº´À» À§ÇÑ ±æÀ» ¿¾î ³õ¾Ò´Ù."The Russian plans for the invasion of Ukraine were detailed and offered solutions to most of the practical problems that Russia would face in occupying Ukraine," the report read. "If competently executed, these plans could have succeeded."º¸°í¼´Â "¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª ħ°ø¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ °èȹÀº »ó¼¼ÇÏ°í ·¯½Ã¾Æ°¡ ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª¸¦ Á¡·ÉÇÏ¸é¼ Á÷¸éÇÏ°Ô µÉ ½ÇÁúÀûÀÎ ÇØ°áÃ¥À» Á¦½ÃÇß´Ù"°í ¹àÇû´Ù."ÀûÀýÇÏ°Ô ½ÇÇàÇß´Ù¸é ÀÌ °èȹµéÀº ¼º°øÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ¾úÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù."Obviously, things did not go as planned. Nearly 10 months after Russia's invasion of the country, a ceasefire remains elusive, while Russia has so far struggled to maintain its foothold in the country against the better-equipped Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian political leadership remains intact. And while Russian attacks on critical infrastructure have occasionally been successful, its broader campaign has not, while the Ukrainian population has continued its active resistance against the invasion.ºÐ¸íÈ÷, ÀϵéÀº °èȹ´ë·Î ÁøÇàµÇÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù. ·¯½Ã¾Æ°¡ ·¯½Ã¾Æ¸¦ ħ°øÇÑ Áö °ÅÀÇ 10°³¿ùÀÌ Áö³ Áö±Ýµµ ÈÞÀüÀº ¿ä¿øÇÑ ¹Ý¸é, ·¯½Ã¾Æ´Â Áö±Ý±îÁö ´õ Àß °®ÃçÁø ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª ¹æ¾î¿¡ ¸Â¼ ÀÚ±¹ ³» °ÅÁ¡À» À¯ÁöÇϱâ À§ÇØ ¾Ö¾²°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ªÀÇ Á¤Ä¡Àû ¸®´õ½ÊÀº ¿©ÀüÈ÷ À¯È¿ÇÏ´Ù.±×¸®°í Áß¿äÇÑ ±â¹Ý ½Ã¼³¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ °ø°ÝÀº ¶§¶§·Î ¼º°øÀû À̾úÁö¸¸, ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª Àα¸´Â ħ·«¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Àû±ØÀûÀÎ ÀúÇ×À» °è¼ÓÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â ¹Ý¸é, ±¤¹üÀ§ÇÑ Ä·ÆäÀÎÀº ¼º°øÇÏÁö ¸øÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
Russia's invasion of the country, the report read, revolved around the success of four key assumptions:ÀÌ º¸°í¼´Â ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ Ä§°øÀº ³× °¡Áö ÁÖ¿ä °¡Á¤À» Áß½ÉÀ¸·Î Àü°³µÇ¾ú´Ù°í ¹àÇû´Ù.That the invasion happens quickly, eliminating the ability of the international community to respond meaningfully.ħ·«ÀÌ »¡¸£°Ô ÀÏÀ¸ÄÑ ±¹Á¦»çȸ°¡ ´ëÀÀÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ¾ÖÃʺÎÅÍ ´É·ÂÀ» ¾ø¾Ø´Ù.That Ukrainian leadership would be quickly deposed, allowing pro-Russian Ukrainians to assume positions of power under a veil of propaganda.±× ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª ÁöµµºÎ´Â ½Å¼ÓÇÏ°Ô ¸éÁ÷µÇ¾î Ä£ ·¯½Ã¾Æ ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª ÀεéÀÌ ¼±ÀüÀÇ º£ÀÏ ¾Æ·¡ ±Ç·ÂÀÇ À§Ä¡¸¦ Â÷ÁöÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ°ÔÇß´Ù.That Russia would be able to seize control of the country's heating, electric (particularly nuclear power plants), and financial infrastructure, and·¯½Ã¾Æ°¡ ±¹°¡ÀÇ ³¹æ, Àü±â (ƯÈ÷ ¿øÀÚ·Â ¹ßÀü¼Ò) ¹× ±ÝÀ¶ ÀÎÇÁ¶ó¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÅëÁ¦±ÇÀ» Àå¾Ç ÇÒ ¼öÀÖÀ» °ÍÀ̸ç,That Russia—the "second most powerful army in the world," Russian General Valery Gerasimov said prior to the war's start—would dominate Ukraine on the battlefield.¹ß·¹¸® °Ô¶ó½Ã¸ðÇÁ ·¯½Ã¾Æ À屺Àº ÀüÀïÀÌ ½ÃÀ۵DZâ Àü "¼¼°è¿¡¼ µÎ ¹ø°·Î °·ÂÇÑ ±º´ë"ÀÎ ·¯½Ã¾Æ°¡ ÀüÀïÅÍ¿¡¼ ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª¸¦ Áö¹èÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í Çß´Ù.Most important of all was the fact the Russians appeared to underestimate their quarry.¹«¾ùº¸´Ùµµ Áß¿äÇÑ °ÍÀº ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀεéÀÌ ±×µéÀÇ Ã¤¼®ÀåÀ» °ú¼ÒÆò°¡ÇÏ´Â °Íó·³ º¸Àδٴ »ç½ÇÀÌ´Ù."The plan itself—while theoretically plausible—compounded optimism bias in each of its stages and, most tellingly, offered no reversionary courses of action, indicated no decision points to determine whether conventional forces should adjust their posture nor envisaged any outcome other than its own success," the report read. "Neither did the plan account for the needs of those tasked with implementing it, nor afford any agency to Ukraine."º¸°í¼´Â "ÀÌ °èȹ ÀÚü´Â ÀÌ·ÐÀûÀ¸·Î ±×·²µíÇÏÁö¸¸ °¢ ´Ü°è¿¡¼ ³«°üÀû Æí°ßÀ» È¥ÇÕÇßÀ¸¸ç, °¡Àå È®½ÇÇÑ °ÍÀº ¹ÝÀüÀûÀÎ Çൿ °úÁ¤À» Á¦°øÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾ÒÀ¸¸ç, Àç·¡½Ä ±º´ë°¡ ¼º°ø ÀÌ¿ÜÀÇ ´Ù¸¥ °á°ú¸¦ ¿¹»óÇØ¾ß ÇÏ´ÂÁö¸¦ °áÁ¤ÇÒ °áÁ¤Á¡À» Á¦½ÃÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù"°í ¹àÇû´Ù. "ÀÌ °èȹÀº ±×°ÍÀ» ÀÌÇàÇÏ´Â ÀÓ¹«¸¦ ¸ÃÀº »ç¶÷µéÀÇ ¿ä±¸¸¦ ¼³¸íÇÏÁöµµ ¾Ê¾Ò°í ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª¿¡ ¾î¶² ±â°üµµ Á¦°øÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù."However, RUSI analysts concluded Russia's inaccurate assessment of Ukraine's response was much less consequential than the fact that there was "no evidence in the Russian planning that anyone had asked what would occur if any of its key assumptions were wrong." By limiting the circle of planners involved in the process, Putin's assumptions of how the invasion would go went essentially unchallenged.±×·¯³ª RUSI ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ªÀÇ ´ëÀÀ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ºÎÁ¤È®ÇÑ Æò°¡°¡ "·¯½Ã¾Æ °èȹ¿¡ ÇÙ½É °¡Á¤ÀÌ Æ²¸° °æ¿ì ¾î¶² ÀÏÀÌ ÀϾ Áö ¹¯´Â »ç¶÷ÀÌ ¾ø´Ù"´Â »ç½Çº¸´Ù ÈξÀ Áß¿äÇÏ´Ù°í °á·Ð Áö¾ú´Ù.ÀÌ °úÁ¤¿¡ °ü¿©ÇÏ´Â ±âȹÀÚµéÀÇ µ¿±×¶ó¹Ì¸¦ Á¦ÇÑÇÔÀ¸·Î½á, ǪƾÀÇ Ä§·«ÀÌ ¾î¶»°Ô ÁøÇàµÉ °ÍÀΰ¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °¡Á¤Àº º»ÁúÀûÀ¸·Î ¹®Á¦µÇÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù.Before the February invasion, Russia's potential adversaries, they wrote, assumed Russian forces would utilize their seemingly massive stores of fire and manpower with "a basic level of competence," in line with what they'd exhibited in smaller-scale military operations around the world in the recent decades.±×µéÀº 2¿ù ħ°ø Àü¿¡ ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ÀáÀçÀû ÀûµéÀº ·¯½Ã¾Æ±ºÀÌ ÃÖ±Ù ¼ö½Ê ³â µ¿¾È Àü ¼¼°è ¼Ò±Ô¸ð ±º»ç ÀÛÀü¿¡¼ º¸¿©ÁØ °Í°ú ÀÏÄ¡ÇÏ´Â "±âº»ÀûÀÎ ¼öÁØÀÇ ´É·Â"À¸·Î ±×µéÀÇ °Å´ëÇØ º¸À̴ ȷ°ú ÀηÂÀ» È°¿ëÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í Çß´Ù.But there were flaws in that assessment. RUSI analysts said there was too much focus on the quantity of equipment, rather than the quality of personnel, their leadership, training and motivations, leading countries like Britain and the United States to be reluctant to openly oppose Russian forces and laying the groundwork for invasion. Today, however, the mask is off.±×·¯³ª ±× Æò°¡¿¡´Â °áÇÔÀÌ ÀÖ¾ú´Ù. RUSI ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº ÀηÂÀÇ Áú, Áöµµ·Â, ÈÆ·Ã ¹× µ¿±â ºÎ¿©º¸´Ù´Â ÀåºñÀÇ ¾ç¿¡ ³Ê¹« ¸¹Àº ÃÊÁ¡À»µÎ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç ¿µ±¹°ú ¹Ì±¹°ú °°Àº ÁÖ¿ä ±¹°¡µéÀÌ ·¯½Ã¾Æ ±º´ë¿¡ °ø°³ÀûÀ¸·Î ¹Ý´ëÇÏ°í ħ·«ÀÇ Åä´ë¸¦ ¸¶·ÃÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ» ²¨·ÁÇÑ´Ù°í Çß´Ù.ÇÏÁö¸¸ ¿À´ÃÀº ¸¶½ºÅ©°¡ ¹þ°ÜÁ³´Ù."For all the new capabilities on the battlefield, the war in Ukraine has been marked by the usual miscalculations, uncertainties and human failings," the report concluded. "For Ukraine, victory is essential but can only be achieved with the ongoing support of its international partners."º¸°í¼´Â "ÀüÀåÀÇ ¸ðµç »õ·Î¿î ´É·Â¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª ÀüÀïÀº Åë»óÀûÀÎ ¿À»ê, ºÒÈ®½Ç¼º, Àΰ£ÀÇ ½ÇÆзΠƯ¡Áö¾îÁ³´Ù"°í °á·ÐÁö¾ú´Ù. "¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª¿¡°Ô ½Â¸®´Â ÇʼöÀûÀÌÁö¸¸ ±¹Á¦ ÆÄÆ®³ÊµéÀÇ Áö¼ÓÀûÀÎ Áö¿øÀ» ÅëÇؼ¸¸ ´Þ¼ºÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù"Meanwhile, the Russian invasion's successes on the battlefield were unevenly concentrated in certain regions of eastern Ukraine like Mariupol, suggesting more competent planning could have resulted in a Russian victory. However, the length of campaigns in other places—like Donbas—allowed the introduction of combined arms like HIMARS obtained via allies that offered Ukrainian forces a much-needed advantage, and helped turn the tide of the war.ÇÑÆí, ÀüÀå¿¡¼ÀÇ ·¯½Ã¾Æ ħ°øÀÇ ¼º°øÀº ¸¶¸®¿ìÆú°ú °°Àº ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª µ¿ºÎÀÇ Æ¯Á¤ Áö¿ª¿¡ °í¸£Áö ¾Ê°Ô ÁýÁߵǾî ÀÖ¾î, º¸´Ù À¯´ÉÇÑ °èȹÀÌ ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ½Â¸®¸¦ °¡Á®¿Ã ¼ö ÀÖ¾úÀ½À» ½Ã»çÇÑ´Ù. ±×·¯³ª µ·¹Ù½º¿Í °°Àº ´Ù¸¥ Àå¼Ò¿¡¼ÀÇ Ä·ÆäÀÎ ±â°£Àº ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ª ±º´ë¿¡ Àý½ÇÈ÷ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ ÀÌÁ¡À» Á¦°øÇÏ°í ÀüÀïÀÇ È帧À» µµ¿î µ¿¸Í±¹À» ÅëÇØ ¾òÀº HIMARS¿Í °°Àº ¹«±âÀÇ µµÀÔÀ» Çã¿ëÇß´Ù.Ultimately, the report's authors chalked Russia's failures to three things: the unexpected resistance of Ukraine, the later involvement of the international community, and Russia's own incompetence.°á±¹ ÀÌ º¸°í¼ÀÇ ÀúÀÚµéÀº ·¯½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ½ÇÆи¦ ¿ìÅ©¶óÀ̳ªÀÇ ¿¹»óÄ¡ ¸øÇÑ ÀúÇ×, ÀÌÈÄ ±¹Á¦»çȸÀÇ °³ÀÔ, ·¯½Ã¾Æ ÀÚ½ÅÀÇ ¹«´É µî ¼¼ °¡Áö´Ù.[newsweek] https://www.newsweek.com/leaked-invasion-plan-reveals-4-assumptions-putin-regime-wrong-1764309
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