¡°Å¸ÀÌ¿Ï À¯»ç½Ã ¡®ÁÖÇѹ̱º Àç¹èÄ¡¡¯ °¡´É¡¦¿ì¼±¼øÀ§´Â ¡®´ëºÏ ¾ïÁö·Â¡¯ À¯Áö¡±[VOA] ¹ÚÇüÁÖ±âÀÚ 2022.9.2
ŸÀÌ¿ÏÇØÇùÀ» µÑ·¯½Ñ ¹ÌÁß °¥µîÀÌ °è¼ÓµÇ¸é¼ ÀÌ Áö¿ª¿¡¼ ¹«·Â Ãæµ¹ÀÌ ¹ß»ýÇÒ °æ¿ì ÁÖÇѹ̱º°ú Çѱ¹ÀÇ ¿ªÇÒ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °ü½Éµµ ³ô¾ÆÁö°í ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ÀüÁ÷ °ü¸®µéÀº ¿øÄ¢ÀûÀ¸·Î ŸÀÌ¿Ï À¯»ç½Ã ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÇ Àç¹èÄ¡°¡ °¡´ÉÇÏ´Ù°í Áø´ÜÇϸ鼵µ ´ëºÏ ¾ïÁö·Â À¯Áö µîÀ» °í·ÁÇØ ½ÇÁúÀûÀÎ ¿ªÇÒÀº Á¦ÇÑÀûÀÏ °ÍÀ¸·Î Áø´ÜÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ¹Ì Áß¾ÓÁ¤º¸±¹(CIA) Ãâ½ÅÀÎ ºê·ç½º Ŭ¸µ³Ê Ç츮ƼÁöÀç´Ü ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº 1ÀÏ VOA¿Í ÀüÈÅëÈ¿¡¼ ŸÀÌ¿ÏÇØÇù¿¡¼ ¹«·ÂÃæµ¹ÀÌ ¹ß»ýÇÒ °æ¿ì ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÇ Âü¿©°¡ ¿øÄ¢ÀûÀ¸·Î °¡´ÉÇÏ´Ù°í ¹àÇû½À´Ï´Ù.±×·¯¸é¼ 2006³â ¹ÌÇÑ Àå°ü±Þ Àü·«´ëÈ¿¡¼ ¡®ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÇ Àü·«Àû À¯¿¬¼º¡¯¿¡ ÇÕÀÇÇß´Ù´Â Á¡À» ±Ù°Å·Î Á¦½ÃÇß½À´Ï´Ù.[³ìÃë: ºê·ç½º Ŭ¸µ³Ê Ç츮ƼÁöÀç´Ü ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°South Korea has already agreed in 2006 on the strategic flexibility of US forces on the Korean peninsula being used in contingencies other than related to North Korea, so it's already agreed to. Also, South Korea has no veto over the deployment of or redeployment of US forces. I think the expectation would be that the US would carry the bulk of the weight on a Taiwan contingency. Japan would be providing strong logistical and protection support and South Korea would not likely become directly involved, but we'll have more responsibility for deterring and defending against North Korea as the US diverted its forces towards Taiwan.¡±´ç½Ã Çѱ¹ Á¤ºÎ°¡ ºÏÇÑ °ü·Ã ÀÌ¿Ü¿¡ À¯»ç »óȲ¿¡¼ ÁÖÇѹ̱º À̵¿À» ÀǹÌÇÏ´Â ¡®Àü·«Àû À¯¿¬¼º¡¯¿¡ µ¿ÀÇÇß´Ù´Â ¼³¸íÀÔ´Ï´Ù.¶ÇÇÑ ¹Ì±º º´·ÂÀÇ ¹èÄ¡¿Í Àç¹èÄ¡´Â Çѱ¹ÀÇ ¡®½ÂÀΡ¯ »ç¾ÈÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó°í Ŭ¸µ³Ê ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº µ¡ºÙ¿´½À´Ï´Ù.2006³â 1¿ù ´ç½Ã Äܵ¹¸®ÀÚ ¶óÀ̽º ¹Ì ±¹¹«Àå°ü°ú ¹Ý±â¹® Çѱ¹ ¿Ü±³Àå°üÀº ¹ÌÇÑ°£ ù Àå°ü±Þ Àü·«´ëȸ¦ °¡Áø µÚ ¡°Çѱ¹Àº µ¿¸Í±¹À¸·Î¼ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¼¼°è ±º»çÀü·Â º¯ÈÀÇ ³í¸®¸¦ ÃæºÐÈ÷ ÀÌÇØÇÏ°í ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÇ Àü·«Àû À¯¿¬¼ºÀ» Á¸ÁßÇϱâ·Î Çß´Ù¡±´Â ³»¿ëÀÇ °øµ¿¼º¸íÀ» ¹ßÇ¥Çß½À´Ï´Ù.Ŭ¸µ³Ê ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ¡°Å¸ÀÌ¿Ï À¯»ç½Ã ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ °¡Àå ¸¹Àº ºÎºÐÀ» °¨´çÇÏ°í ÀϺ»Àº ±º¼ö º¸È£ Áö¿øÀ» Á¦°øÇÒ °Í¡±À̶ó¸ç ¡°Çѱ¹Àº Á÷Á¢ÀûÀÎ °ü¿© ´ë½Å ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ Å¸ÀÌ¿ÏÀ¸·Î º´·ÂÀ» ÀüȯÇÔ¿¡ µû¶ó ´ëºÏ ¾ïÁö¿Í ¹æ¾î¿¡ ´õ¿í ºÎ´ãÀ» Áö°Ô µÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óÇÑ´Ù¡±°í Áø´ÜÇß½À´Ï´Ù.±×·¯¸é¼ ÃÖ±Ù ¼¿ï ¹æ¹®¿¡¼ Çѱ¹ °ü¸®µé°ú ´ëÈÇÏ¸é¼ Çѱ¹ÀÌ ÀáÀçÀûÀÎ À¯»ç½Ã °èȹ¿¡ ´ëÇØ °ËÅäÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â ÀλóÀ» ¹Þ¾Ò´Ù°í ÀüÇß½À´Ï´Ù.Çѱ¹ÀÇ À±¼®¿ ´ëÅë·É°ú Á¶ ¹ÙÀÌµç ¹Ì±¹ ´ëÅë·ÉÀº Áö³ 5¿ù ¼¿ï¿¡¼ ¿¸° Á¤»óȸ´ã °øµ¿¼º¸í¿¡¼ ¡°Àεµ-ÅÂÆò¾ç Áö¿ª ¾Èº¸ ¹× ¹ø¿µÀÇ ÇÙ½É ¿ä¼Ò·Î¼ ŸÀÌ¿ÏÇØÇù¿¡¼ÀÇ ÆòÈ¿Í ¾ÈÁ¤ À¯ÁöÀÇ Á߿伺À» °Á¶Çß´Ù¡±°í ¸í½ÃÇß½À´Ï´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ¾ÆÁ÷ ŸÀÌ¿Ï À¯»ç½Ã ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀ̳ª Çѱ¹ÀÇ ¿ªÇÒ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °ø°³ÀûÀÎ ³íÀÇ´Â È°¹ßÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀº »óȲÀÔ´Ï´Ù.¡ã Áö³ 5¿ù ¹æÇÑÇÑ Á¶ ¹ÙÀÌµç ¹Ì±¹ ´ëÅë·É°ú À±¼®¿ Çѱ¹ ´ëÅë·ÉÀÌ ¿À»ê ¹Ì °ø±º±âÁö¿¡ ÀÖ´Â Ç×°ø¿ìÁÖÀÛÀüº»ºÎ(KAOC) ÀÛÀüÁ¶Á¤½ÇÀ» ÇÔ²² ¹æ¹®Çß´Ù.Çѱ¹ÀÇ »õ Á¤ºÎ Ãâ¹üÀ» ¾ÕµÐ Áö³ 4¿ù, ¹Ì±¹ ÇÏ¿ø¿¡¼ ¿¸° û¹®È¸¿¡¼± Áß±¹ÀÌ Å¸ÀÌ¿ÏÀ» ħ°øÇÒ °æ¿ì ±º»ç°èȹ°ú Çѱ¹ÀÇ ¿ªÇÒ¿¡ ´ëÇØ Çѱ¹ »õ Á¤ºÎ¿Í ³íÀÇ°¡ ÇÊ¿äÇÏ´Ù´Â ÁÖ¹®ÀÌ ³ª¿Ô½À´Ï´Ù.[³ìÃë: ¸¶ÀÌŬ ¿ùÃ÷ °øÈ´ç ÇÏ¿øÀÇ¿ø] ¡°I do think that we do need to take a public posture with the new South Korean government, on what we're prepared to do and what they're prepared to do. An Associated question there is, is China going to lean on the North Korean government to ramp up tensions and to tie those forces down in the Taiwan strait scenario.¡±¸¶ÀÌŬ ¿ùÃ÷ °øÈ´ç ÇÏ¿øÀÇ¿øÀº ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ¡°Çѱ¹ÀÇ »õ Á¤ºÎ¿Í ÇÔ²² (Áß±¹ÀÇ Å¸ÀÌ¿Ï Ä§·« ½Ã) ¿ì¸®°¡ ¹«¾ùÀ» ÇÒ Áغñ°¡ µÅ ÀÖ°í, Çѱ¹ÀÌ ¹«¾ùÀ» ÇÒ Áغñ°¡ µÅ ÀÖ´ÂÁö¿¡ ´ëÇØ °ø°³ÀûÀ¸·Î ÀÔÀåÀ» ¹àÈú ÇÊ¿ä°¡ ÀÖ´Ù¡±°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù.ŸÀÌ¿ÏÇØÇù¿¡ ÀÎÁ¢ÇÑ ¼¾Ä«Äí ¿µµ(Áß±¹¸í ´ô¿ÀÀ§´Ù¿À)¸¦ ³õ°í Áß±¹°ú ¿µÅäºÐÀïÀ» ¹úÀÌ°í ÀÖ´Â ÀϺ»Àº ¹Ì±¹°ú ŸÀÌ¿Ï À¯»ç½Ã¿¡ °üÇÑ »õ·Î¿î ÀÛÀü°èȹ ¼ö¸³¿¡ Âø¼öÇÑ °ÍÀ¸·Î ÀüÇØÁ³½À´Ï´Ù.Çѹ̿¬ÇÕ»ç ÀÛÀüÂü¸ð Ãâ½ÅÀÎ µ¥À̺ñµå ¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀǼöÈ£Àç´Ü ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øµµ ÇÙ½É °ü½É»çÀÎ ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÇ Âü¿© ¿©ºÎ¿Í °ü·ÃÇØ ¹Ì±º Àç¹èÄ¡ ±ÇÇÑÀÌ ¹Ì±¹ Ãø¿¡ ÀÖ´Ù´Â Á¡À» °Á¶Çß½À´Ï´Ù.[³ìÃë: µ¥À̺ñµå ¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¹ÎÁÖÁÖÀǼöÈ£Àç´Ü ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°So we have done this before. In 2004, Rumsfeld ordered an entire Brigade Combat Team deployed from Second Infantry Division to Iraq¡¦¡±¶Ç ½ÇÁ¦·Î °ú°Å 2004³â À̶óÅ© ÀüÀï, ¾ÆÇÁ°¡´Ï½ºÅº¿¡¼ÀÇ Å×·¯¿ÍÀÇ ÀüÀï µî¿¡¼ ÀϺΠÁÖÇѹ̱º º´·ÂÀÌ Àç¹èÄ¡µÆ´ø »ç·Ê°¡ ÀÖ¾ú´Ù°í ¼³¸íÇß½À´Ï´Ù.¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ´Ù¸¸ ¹ÌÇÑ»óÈ£¹æÀ§Á¶¾àÀº ºÏÇÑ µî ƯÁ¤ À§Çù¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¸í½Ã ¾øÀÌ '¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ÅÂÆò¾ç Áö¿ªÀÇ À§ÇùÀ¸·ÎºÎÅÍ »ó´ë±¹À» ¹æ¾îÇÒ °ÍÀ» ¿ä±¸ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù'°í ¼³¸íÇß½À´Ï´Ù.±×·¯¸é¼ "ŸÀÌ¿Ï¿¡ ´ëÇÑ À§ÇùÀÌ ¿©±â¿¡ Æ÷ÇԵǴÂÁö ¿©ºÎ´Â ºÒºÐ¸íÇÏ´Ù"¸é¼ "¸ðµç »óÈ£¹æÀ§Á¶¾àÀº ÀÚµ¿ÀûÀ¸·Î ¹ßµ¿µÇ´Â °ÍÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ÇùÀǸ¦ ÅëÇØ ÀÌ·ïÁø´Ù"°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.[³ìÃë: ¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°Mutual Defense treaty calls on both countries to defend each other against threats in the Asia Pacific region. Mutual defense treaty, there is no mention of North Korea or the DPRK. It only talks about threats against both countries in the Asia Pacific region. Now what is not clear is a threat to Taiwan is covered under that. The mutual defense treaty and any treaty is not automatic. Everything takes consultation.¡±¸Æ½ºÀ£ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ±×·¯³ª ¡°ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÇ ¿ì¼±¼øÀ§´Â ºÏÇÑ °ø°ÝÀ» ¸·±â À§ÇÑ Áغñż¼¿Í ¾ïÁö·Â À¯Áö¡±¶ó¸ç, ŸÀÌ¿Ï À¯»ç½Ã »óȲ¿¡µµ ÀÌ´Â ¸¶Âù°¡ÁöÀÏ °ÍÀ̶ó°í °Á¶Çß½À´Ï´Ù.¶Ç ŸÀÌ¿Ï À¯»ç½Ã Áö¿øÀ» À§ÇØ ÁÖÇѹ̱º°ú Çѱ¹±º µî Ãß°¡ º´·ÂÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇÏ´Ù¸é, ÃÖ°íÀ§±Þ ¼öÁØ¿¡¼ Á¤Ä¡ ±º»çÀû Àü·«À» Á¾ÇÕÀûÀ¸·Î °í·ÁÇØ °áÁ¤ÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.¹Ì ÀÇȸÁ¶»ç±¹Àº ÃÖ±Ù ¹ß°£ÇÑ º¸°í¼¿¡¼ Áß±¹ÀÌ Å¸ÀÌ¿ÏÀ» ħ°øÇÒ °æ¿ì ÁÖÇѹ̱º µî ¿ª³»¿¡ ¹èÄ¡µÈ ¹Ì±¹ Áö»ó±ºÀÌ ¾î¶² ¿ªÇÒÀ» ÇÒÁö ÇöÀç·Î¼± ºÒÈ®½ÇÇÏ´Ù°í ÁöÀûÇß½À´Ï´Ù.¹Ì ¹é¾Ç°ü ±¹°¡¾Èº¸È¸ÀÇ(NSC)¿Í ±¹¹æºÎ °ü¸® Ãâ½ÅÀÎ ¹Ì±¹±â¾÷¿¬±¸¼Ò(AEI)ÀÇ Àè ÄíÆÛ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øµµ "ŸÀÌ¿Ï¿¡¼ ÁÖ¿ä ºÐÀïÀÌ ¹ß»ýÇÑ »óȲ¿¡¼ ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÌ ¾î¶² ¿ªÇÒÀ» ÇÒÁö´Â ºÐ¸íÇÏÁö ¾Ê´Ù"°í Áø´ÜÇß½À´Ï´Ù.±×·¯¸é¼ ¡°ÁÖÇѹ̱º Áö»ó±ºÀº ´ëü·Î Á¦ÀÚ¸®¿¡ ¸Ó¹° °ÍÀ¸·Î »ý°¢ÇÑ´Ù¡±°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.[Àè ÄíÆÛ ¹Ì±¹±â¾÷¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°I think Washington would want support from South Korea, as set out in the Mutual Defense Treaty. But my expectations for South Korea¡¯s contributions in a Taiwan scenario are relatively limited at the moment. It might simply be diplomatic and political support. It could be basing access. Or it could include some degree of military assistance, if authorities in Seoul determined this was necessary. ¡°ºÐÀïÀÇ ÇÑ°¡¿îµ¥¿¡ Áö»ó±ºÀ» À̵¿½ÃÅ°´Â °ÍÀº ¾î·Æ°í, ºÏÇÑÀÇ Ä§·«¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °·ÂÇÑ ¾ïÁö·ÂÀ» À¯ÁöÇÒ ÇÊ¿ä°¡ ÀÖ´Ù´Â ¼³¸íÀÔ´Ï´Ù.´Ù¸¸ "°ø±º°ú Çرº º´·ÂÀº ³²ÂÊÀ¸·Î À̵¿ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÁö¸¸ ÀÌ·± °áÁ¤Àº ÀÏÁ¤ ºÎºÐ Çѱ¹°ú ¹Ì±¹ Á¤ºÎÀÇ ÇùÀÇ¿¡ ´Þ·ÈÀ» °Í"À̶ó°í µ¡ºÙ¿´½À´Ï´Ù.ÄíÆÛ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ¶Ç "¹Ì±¹ Á¤ºÎ´Â »óÈ£¹æÀ§Á¶¾à¿¡ µû¶ó Çѱ¹ÀÇ Áö¿øÀ» ¹Ù¶ö °Í¡±ÀÌÁö¸¸ "ÇöÀç·Î¼± 'ŸÀÌ¿Ï ½Ã³ª¸®¿À'¿¡¼ Çѱ¹ÀÇ ±â¿©´Â ºñ±³Àû Á¦ÇÑÀûÀÏ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óÇÑ´Ù"°í ¼³¸íÇß½À´Ï´Ù¿Ü±³Àû Á¤Ä¡Àû Áö¿ø¿¡ ±×Ä¡°Å³ª ±âÁö Á¢±Ù Çã¿ë Á¤µµÀÏ ¼ö ÀÖ°í, Çѱ¹ ´ç±¹ÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇÏ´Ù°í ÆÇ´ÜÇÒ ¶§´Â ±º»çÀû Áö¿øµµ ¾î´À Á¤µµ Æ÷Ç﵃ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀÔ´Ï´Ù.ÄíÆÛ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº Çѱ¹ÀÌ ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÇ Àü·«Àû À¯¿¬¼ºÀ» Çã¿ëÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ Çѱ¹ Ãø¿¡µµ ÇÕ¸®ÀûÀ̶ó°í Áø´ÜÇß½À´Ï´Ù.
[Àè ÄíÆÛ ¹Ì±¹±â¾÷¿¬±¸¼Ò ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿ø] ¡°I think it makes sense for South Korea to give the United States the flexibility it needs to deal with any contingency. After all, if other countries limit U.S. deployability as well then the United States will also have a harder time coming to Korea¡¯s aid in a crisis. So strategic flexibility is important not just to the United States but to South Korea as well. In addition, if U.S. forces in South Korea are not flexible, then I suspect some in the Pentagon will want to reconsider force levels if the United States comes under more severe resource pressures.¡±Çѱ¹ÀÌ ¹Ì±ºÀÇ ¹èÄ¡ °¡´É¼ºÀ» Á¦ÇÑÇÑ´Ù¸é ¹Ì±¹ ¿ª½Ã À§±â »óȲ¿¡¼ Çѱ¹À» Áö¿øÇϱ⠾î·Á¿ï °ÍÀ̶ó´Â ¼³¸íÀÔ´Ï´Ù.ÄíÆÛ ¼±ÀÓ¿¬±¸¿øÀº ¡°ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÇ À¯¿¬¼ºÀÌ ¶³¾îÁö°í ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ´õ ½É°¢ÇÑ Àç¿ø ¾Ð¹Ú¿¡ ³õÀÌ°Ô µÇ¸é ¹Ì ±¹¹æºÎ ÀÏ°¢¿¡¼´Â (ÁÖÇѹ̱ºÀÇ) º´·Â ¼öÁØÀ» Àç°íÇÏ·Á ÇÒ °Í¡±À̶ó°í ¸»Çß½À´Ï´Ù.[voa] https://www.voakorea.com/a/6727984.html
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