EXPLAINER: Is North Korea moving nukes to its border?
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[AP] 2022³â 6¿ù 24ÀÏ GMT
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Is North Korea preparing to deploy tactical nuclear weapons along its tense border with rival South Korea, which is only a short drive from the 26 million people living in and around Seoul, its capital?
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That¡¯s how it looks to many experts paying close attention to a high-profile North Korean military meeting this week. The possible deployment, just two months after a veiled threat by leader Kim Jong Un to preemptively use nuclear weapons, would be a major development in the decades-long standoff on the Korean Peninsula.
¸¹Àº Àü¹®°¡µéÀÌ À̹ø ÁÖ ¿¸®´Â ºÏÇѱº °íÀ§±Þ ±º»çȸ´ã¿¡ ÁÖ¸ñÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â °Íµµ ÀÌ ¶§¹®ÀÌ´Ù. ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ ¼±Á¦ÀûÀ¸·Î ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ »ç¿ëÇÏ°Ú´Ù°í À§ÇùÇÑ Áö ºÒ°ú µÎ ´Þ ¸¸¿¡ ¹èÄ¡µÉ °¡´É¼ºÀº ¼ö½Ê ³â µ¿¾È Áö¼ÓµÈ Çѹݵµ ´ëÄ¡ »óȲ¿¡¼ Áß´ëÇÑ ¹ßÀüÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
North Korea already has thousands of conventional weapons aimed at South Korea and the nearly 30,000 U.S. forces stationed there, but moving its short-range nuclear missiles to the border would be the clearest sign yet that Kim is looking to use his nuclear weapons to both threaten South Korea and wrest concessions from outside nuclear negotiators.
ºÏÇÑÀº ÀÌ¹Ì Çѱ¹À» °Ü³ÉÇÑ ¼öõ °³ÀÇ Àç·¡½Ä ¹«±â¸¦ º¸À¯ÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç °ÅÀÇ 30,000¸íÀÇ ¹Ì±ºÀÌ ±×°÷¿¡ ÁÖµÐÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ´Ü°Å¸® ÇÙ ¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» ±¹°æÀ¸·Î ¿Å±â´Â °ÍÀº ±è À§¿øÀåÀÌ µÎ ³ª¶ó ¸ðµÎ¸¦ À§ÇùÇϱâ À§ÇØ ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ »ç¿ëÇÏ·Á´Â °¡Àå ºÐ¸íÇÑ ½ÅÈ£°¡ µÉ °ÍÀÔ´Ï´Ù.
Together with North Korea¡¯s apparent preparations for its first nuclear test in five years, there¡¯s deep skepticism among observers that diplomacy can convince the country to abandon its nukes. Critics are calling on Seoul and Washington to formulate a new approach to deal with North Korea¡¯s fast improving nuclear program.
ºÏÇÑÀÌ 5³â ¸¸¿¡ ù ÇÙ½ÇÇèÀ» ÁغñÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â °Í°ú ÇÔ²² ¿Ü±³°¡ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙÆ÷±â¸¦ ¼³µæÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖÀ»Áö¿¡ ´ëÇؼµµ ȸÀÇÀûÀÎ ½Ã°¢ÀÌ ÀûÁö ¾Ê´Ù. ºñÆÇ·ÐÀÚµéÀº Çѱ¹°ú ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ºü¸£°Ô °³¼±µÇ´Â ÇÙ ÇÁ·Î±×·¥¿¡ ´ëóÇϱâ À§ÇÑ »õ·Î¿î Á¢±Ù¹ýÀ» ¸¶·ÃÇÒ °ÍÀ» ¿ä±¸ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.
Here¡¯s a look at Kim¡¯s latest nuclear moves.
±è À§¿øÀåÀÇ ÃÖ±Ù ÇÙ Çຸ¸¦ º¸½ÃÁÒ.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON THE BORDER?
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During a military meeting that ended Thursday, Kim and other senior officials confirmed additional ¡°operation duties¡± and ¡°modified operation plans¡± for military units near the border with South Korea.
±è À§¿øÀåÀ» ºñ·ÔÇÑ °íÀ§ °ü¸®µéÀº ¸ñ¿äÀÏ¿¡ ³¡³ ±º»çȸ´ã¿¡¼ ³²ÇÑ°úÀÇ ±¹°æ ±Ùó¿¡ ÀÖ´Â ±ººÎ´ë¿¡ Ãß°¡Àû "ÀÛÀü ÀÓ¹«"¿Í "¼öÁ¤µÈ ÀÛÀü °èȹ"À» ÇÏ´ÞÇß´Ù.
State media dispatches didn¡¯t mention nuclear weapons directly. But outside experts believe North Korea¡¯s vague language signals its intention to forward-deploy tactical nuclear weapons systems. They base their assessment in part on recent public comments from North Korea about such plans, and on a slew of tests of short-range nuclear-capable missiles designed to attack strategic facilities in South Korea, including U.S. military bases there.
°ü¿µ ¾ð·ÐÀº ÇÙ¹«±â¿¡ ´ëÇØ Á÷Á¢ÀûÀ¸·Î ¾ð±ÞÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù. ±×·¯³ª ¿ÜºÎ Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¸ðÈ£ÇÑ ¾ð»ç°¡ Àü¼úÇÙ¹«±â ü°è¸¦ ÀüÁø ¹èÄ¡ÇÏ°Ú´Ù´Â Àǵµ¸¦ º¸¿©ÁÖ´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î º¸°í ÀÖ´Ù. ±×µéÀº ºÎºÐÀûÀ¸·Î ±×·¯ÇÑ °èȹ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÃÖ±Ù °ø°³ÀûÀÎ ³íÆò°ú ±×°÷ÀÇ ¹Ì±º ±âÁö¸¦ Æ÷ÇÔÇÑ Çѱ¹ÀÇ Àü·« ½Ã¼³À» °ø°ÝÇϱâ À§ÇØ ¼³°èµÈ ´Ü°Å¸® ÇÙ ¹Ì»çÀÏ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¼ö¸¹Àº ½ÇÇèÀÌ ±Ù°Å´Ù.
One big hint came in April, when North Korea test-fired a newly developed guided weapon that it said would improve the efficient operation of ¡°tactical nukes¡± and boost the firepower of front-line artillery units. Later that month, Kim said he could use his nuclear program preemptively if provoked.
Áö³ 4¿ù ºÏÇÑÀÌ 'Àü¼úÇÙ'ÀÇ È¿À²Àû ¿î¿ëÀ» °³¼±ÇÏ°í ÃÖÀü¹æ Æ÷º´ºÎ´ëÀÇ È·ÂÀ» Áõ°ÇÏ°Ú´Ù¸ç »õ·Î °³¹ßÇÑ À¯µµ¹«±â¸¦ ½ÃÇè ¹ß»çÇÑ °Íµµ Å« ÈùÆ®°¡ µÆ´Ù. ±× ´Þ ¸», ±è À§¿øÀåÀº µµ¹ßÇϸé ÇÙ ÇÁ·Î±×·¥À» ¼±Á¦ÀûÀ¸·Î »ç¿ëÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í Çß´Ù.
North Korea now has a ¡°much higher chance to use its tactical nuclear weapons on a battlefield¡± if a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, said Kim Yeol Soo, an expert at South Korea¡¯s Korea Institute for Military Affairs.
±è¿¼ö Çѱ¹±º»ç¹®Á¦¿¬±¸¼Ò ¿¬±¸À§¿øÀº "Çѹݵµ¿¡¼ ÀüÀïÀÌ ÀϾ¸é ºÏÇÑÀÌ Àü¼úÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ »ç¿ëÇÒ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ³ô´Ù"°í ¸»Çß´Ù.
The weapons likely to be deployed at the border are some of the more mobile, solid-fueled, short-range missiles that North Korea has test-launched since nuclear diplomacy with the United States collapsed in 2019. North Korea has called those missiles -- which foreign experts say are potentially capable of evading South Korean and U.S. missile defenses -- ¡°tactical¡± weapons, implying its intent to arm them with lower-yield nuclear weapons.
±¹°æ¿¡ ¹èÄ¡µÉ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ÀÖ´Â ¹«±â´Â 2019³â ¹Ì±¹°úÀÇ Çٿܱ³°¡ °á·ÄµÈ ÀÌÈÄ ºÏÇÑÀÌ ½ÃÇè¹ß»çÇÑ À̵¿¼ºÀÌ ³ô°í °íü¿¬·á¸¦ »ç¿ëÇÏ´Â ´Ü°Å¸® ¹Ì»çÀÏ Áß ÀϺδÙ. ºÏÇÑÀº ³²ÇÑ°ú ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¹Ì»çÀÏ ¹æ¾î¸ÁÀ» ÇÇÇÒ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ÀÖ´Â ¹Ì»çÀϵéÀ» 'Àü¼úÀû' ¹«±â¶ó°í ±ÔÁ¤ÇÏ°í ÀÖ¾î ÇÙ¹«±â·Î ¹«ÀåÇÏ·Á´Â Àǵµ¸¦ ³»ºñÃÆ´Ù.
North Korea has likely already acquired the technology to arm its missiles with nuclear warheads, so its deployment of tactical nuclear weapons could happen any time, said Kim Taewoo, former head of the state-funded Korean Institute for National Unification in Seoul.
±èÅ¿ì Àü ÅëÀÏ¿¬±¸¿øÀåÀº "ºÏÇÑÀº ÀÌ¹Ì ÇÙźµÎ·Î ¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» ¹«ÀåÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ±â¼úÀ» È®º¸ÇßÀ» °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ³ô¾Æ Àü¼úÇÙ ¹èÄ¡´Â ¾ðÁ¦µç ÀϾ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù"°í Çß´Ù.
Some experts, however, said North Korea might not deploy nuclear-armed missiles because of possible problems maintaining them.
±×·¯³ª ÀϺΠÀü¹®°¡µéÀº ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÇÙ¹«Àå ¹Ì»çÀÏÀ» À¯ÁöÇÏ´Â µ¥ ¹®Á¦°¡ ÀÖÀ» ¼ö Àֱ⠶§¹®¿¡ ¹èÄ¡ÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀ» ¼öµµ ÀÖ´Ù°í Çß´Ù.
___
WILL SOUTH KOREA RESPOND BY DEPLOYING NUCLEAR WEAPONS?
Çѱ¹Àº ÇÙ¹«±â ¹èÄ¡·Î ´ëÀÀÇÒ °ÍÀΰ¡?
North Korea¡¯s apparent push to deploy tactical nuclear weapons may be part of Kim¡¯s recent vow to counter the United States ¡°strength for strength¡± amid stalled nuclear diplomacy. It also comes as Washington and Seoul work to strengthen their combined defense capabilities to cope with North Korean nuclear threats.
ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¸í¹éÇÑ Àü¼úÇÙ ¹èÄ¡ ÃßÁøÀº ÃÖ±Ù ÇÙ ¿Ü±³°¡ ±³Âø»óÅ¿¡ ºüÁø °¡¿îµ¥ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ '°·ÂÇÑ Èû'¿¡ ¸Â¼°Ú´Ù´Â ±è À§¿øÀåÀÇ ´ÙÁüÀÇ ÀÏȯÀÏ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù. ÀÌ´Â ¶ÇÇÑ ¹Ì±¹°ú Çѱ¹ÀÌ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ À§Çù¿¡ ´ëóÇϱâ À§ÇØ ¿¬ÇÕ ¹æÀ§·ÂÀ» °ÈÇϱâ À§ÇØ ³ë·ÂÇÏ´Â °¡¿îµ¥ ³ª¿Â °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
While the Koreas have avoided major conflict since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, there have been deadly skirmishes and attacks in recent years that have killed dozens.
³²ºÏÇÑÀº 1950-53³â Çѱ¹ÀüÀïÀÌ ³¡³ ÀÌÈÄ Å« Ãæµ¹À» ÇÇÇßÁö¸¸, ÃÖ±Ù ¸î ³â°£ ¼ö½Ê ¸íÀÇ ¸ñ¼ûÀ» ¾Ñ¾Æ°£ Ä¡¸íÀûÀÎ ±³Àü°ú °ø°ÝÀÌ ÀÖ¾ú´Ù.
North Korea has a history of escalating threats and provocations when a new government is inaugurated in South Korea or the United States to create a potentially favorable environment for future negotiations. The country has often then dialed down its rhetoric and launched charm offensives.
ºÏÇÑÀº Çѱ¹À̳ª ¹Ì±¹¿¡¼ »õ Á¤ºÎ°¡ Ãâ¹üÇϸé ÇâÈÄ Çù»ó¿¡ À¯¸®ÇÑ È¯°æÀ» Á¶¼ºÇϱâ À§ÇØ À§Çù°ú µµ¹ßÀ» °íÁ¶½ÃŲ Àü·ÂÀÌ ÀÖ´Ù. ±× ³ª¶ó´Â Á¾Á¾ ¹Ì»ç¿©±¸¸¦ ÁÙÀÌ°í °ø¼¼¸¦ ÆîÃÆ´Ù.
That may happen this time.
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But nuclear weapons on the front lines would complicate how South Korea responds to any future North Korean provocation.
±×·¯³ª ÃÖÀü¹æÀÇ ÇÙ¹«±â´Â ÇâÈÄ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ¾î¶°ÇÑ µµ¹ß¿¡µµ Çѱ¹ÀÌ ¾î¶»°Ô ´ëÀÀÇÏ´ÂÁö¸¦ º¹ÀâÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µé °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
New South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, during a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden last month, secured a U.S. commitment on the regional deployment of U.S. strategic assets such as long-range bombers and aircraft carriers in response to provocations by North Korea.
À±¼®¿ ½ÅÀÓ Çѱ¹ ´ëÅë·ÉÀº Áö³´Þ Á¶ ¹ÙÀÌµç ¹Ì±¹ ´ëÅë·É°úÀÇ Á¤»óȸ´ã¿¡¼ ºÏÇÑÀÇ µµ¹ß¿¡ ´ëÀÀÇØ Àå°Å¸® Æø°Ý±â¿Í Ç×°ø¸ðÇÔ µî ¹Ì±¹ Àü·«ÀÚ»êÀÇ Áö¿ª ¹èÄ¡¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¾à¼ÓÀ» È®º¸Çß´Ù.
The allies may also conduct their largest combined military training in years in August.
µ¿¸Í±¹µéÀº ¶ÇÇÑ 8¿ù¿¡ ¸î ³â ¸¸¿¡ ÃÖ´ë ±Ô¸ðÀÇ ¿¬ÇÕ±º»çÈÆ·ÃÀ» ½Ç½ÃÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù.
But Yoon has said he won¡¯t pursue nuclear development or ask the United States to redeploy nuclear weapons in South Korea as a deterrence against potential aggression by North Korea.
±×·¯³ª À± Àå°üÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÀáÀçÀû ħ·«¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¾ïÁö·ÂÀ¸·Î ÇÙ °³¹ßÀ» ÃßÁøÇϰųª ¹Ì±¹¿¡°Ô Çѱ¹¿¡ ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ Àç¹èÄ¡Çϵµ·Ï ¿äûÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ̶ó°í Çß´Ù.
The South Korean military said it¡¯s closely monitoring North Korean activities over the possible move to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, but didn¡¯t elaborate.
±º ´ç±¹Àº Àü¼úÇÙ ¹èÄ¡ ¿òÁ÷ÀÓ°ú °ü·ÃÇØ ºÏÇÑÀÇ µ¿ÇâÀ» ¿¹ÀÇÁÖ½ÃÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù°í ¹àÇûÁö¸¸ ±¸Ã¼ÀûÀÎ ³»¿ëÀº ¹àÈ÷Áö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù.
Some experts say North Korea¡¯s expansion of tactical nuclear weapons and pursuit of long-range missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland have reduced the credibility of America¡¯s ¡°nuclear umbrella,¡± though the Biden administration has repeatedly reaffirmed a U.S. commitment to defend South Korea with its full range of military capabilities.
ÀϺΠÀü¹®°¡µéÀº ¹ÙÀ̵ç ÇàÁ¤ºÎ°¡ Àü¹æÀ§ ±º»ç·ÂÀ¸·Î Çѱ¹À» ¹æ¾îÇÏ°Ú´Ù´Â ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ¾à¼ÓÀ» °Åµì ÀçÈ®ÀÎÇßÀ½¿¡µµ ºÏÇÑÀÇ Àü¼úÇÙ¹«±â È®´ë¿Í ¹Ì±¹ º»Åä±îÁö µµ´ÞÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â Àå°Å¸® ¹Ì»çÀÏ Ãß±¸°¡ ¹Ì±¹ÀÇ 'ÇÙ¿ì»ê'¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ½Å·Úµµ¸¦ ¶³¾î¶ß·È´Ù°í Æò°¡ÇÑ´Ù.
There are also calls for the reintroduction of U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea.
¹Ì±¹ÀÇ ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ Çѱ¹¿¡ ÀçµµÀÔÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù´Â ÁÖÀåµµ ³ª¿Â´Ù.
¡°We should switch to a strategy of terminating North Korea¡¯s nuke threats through a nuclear balance,¡± said Kim Taewoo, the former head of the Korean Institute for National Unification. ¡°The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons means that North Korea¡¯s nuclear threat would be right in front of us.¡±
±èÅ¿ì Àü ÅëÀÏ¿¬±¸¿øÀåÀº "ÇÙ ±ÕÇüÀ» ÅëÇØ ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ À§ÇùÀ» Á¾½Ä½ÃÅ°´Â Àü·«À¸·Î ÀüȯÇØ¾ß ÇÑ´Ù"°í Çß´Ù. Àü¼úÇÙ ¹èÄ¡´Â ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙÀ§ÇùÀÌ ÄÚ¾Õ¿¡ ÀÖ´Ù´Â °ÍÀ» ÀǹÌÇÑ´Ù.
___
WHAT¡¯S NEXT?
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Tactical nuclear weapons were part of a five-year arms development plan Kim Jong Un announced last year. He has ramped up ballistic missile testing to an unprecedented pace this year to boost his country¡¯s ability to attack both the U.S. mainland and South Korea.
Àü¼úÇÙÀº ±èÁ¤ÀºÀÌ Áö³ÇØ ¹ßÇ¥ÇÑ 5°³³â ¹«±â°³¹ß°èȹÀÇ ÀÏȯÀÌ´Ù. ±×´Â ¿ÃÇØ ¹Ì±¹ º»Åä¿Í Çѱ¹À» ¸ðµÎ °ø°ÝÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ´É·ÂÀ» ³ôÀ̱â À§ÇØ Åºµµ ¹Ì»çÀÏ ½ÇÇèÀ» °ÈÇß´Ù.
For weeks, U.S. and South Korean officials have noted signs of an imminent nuclear test by North Korea, which would be its first since 2017 and seventh in total. Such a test could be part of an attempt to build a warhead that could fit on tactical missiles or multi-warhead missiles.
¸î ÁÖ µ¿¾È, ¹Ì±¹°ú Çѱ¹ °ü¸®µéÀº ºÏÇÑÀÇ ÇÙ½ÇÇèÀÌ ÀÓ¹ÚÇߴٴ ¡Èĸ¦ ÁÖ¸ñÇߴµ¥, ÀÌ´Â 2017³â ÀÌÈÄ Ã³À½ÀÌÀÚ ÃÑ 7¹ø°°¡ µÉ °ÍÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ °°Àº ½ÃÇèÀº Àü¼ú¹Ì»çÀÏÀ̳ª ´ÙźµÎ ¹Ì»çÀÏ¿¡ ÀåÂøÇÒ ¼ö Àִ źµÎ¸¦ ¸¸µé·Á´Â ½ÃµµÀÇ ÀÏȯÀÏ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù.
But North Korea hasn¡¯t carried out such a test yet, possibly because of its continuing COVID-19 outbreak and opposition from China, its last major ally and biggest aid provider.
ÇÏÁö¸¸ ºÏÇÑÀº ¾ÆÁ÷ ÀÌ·± ½ÇÇèÀ» ÇÏÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Âµ¥, ÀÌ´Â Áö¼ÓÀûÀÎ Äڷγª19 ¹ßº´°ú ¸¶Áö¸· ÁÖ¿ä µ¿¸Í±¹ÀÌÀÚ ÃÖ´ë ¿øÁ¶ Á¦°ø±¹ÀÎ Áß±¹ÀÇ ¹Ý´ë ¶§¹®ÀÏ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.
North Korea has so far rejected the Biden administration¡¯s offers of open-ended talks, calling for Washington to first abandon its ¡°hostile policy,¡± a term it uses in reference to U.S.-led economic sanctions and joint U.S.-South Korean military drills.
ºÏÇÑÀº Áö±Ý±îÁö ¹Ì±¹ÀÌ ÁÖµµÇÏ´Â °æÁ¦ Á¦Àç¿Í ÇÑ¹Ì ¿¬ÇÕ±º»çÈƷðú °ü·ÃÇØ »ç¿ëÇÏ´Â ¿ë¾îÀÎ 'Àû´ë Á¤Ã¥'À» ¸ÕÀú Æó±âÇÒ °ÍÀ» ¿ä±¸ÇÏ¸ç ¹ÙÀ̵ç ÇàÁ¤ºÎÀÇ °ø°³È¸´ã Á¦ÀǸ¦ °ÅºÎÇØ ¿Ô´Ù.
Experts say it¡¯s only a matter of time before North Korea conducts a nuclear test, which is seen as an essential step in enlarging its nuclear arsenal under Kim¡¯s five-year plan. Such a test would likely further complicate a push to resume nuclear diplomacy.
Àü¹®°¡µéÀº ºÏÇÑÀÌ ÇÙ½ÇÇèÀ» ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº ½Ã°£ ¹®Á¦ÀÏ »ÓÀ̸ç, ÀÌ´Â ±è À§¿øÀåÀÇ 5°³³â °èȹ¿¡ µû¶ó ÇÙ¹«±â¸¦ Áõ°ÇÏ´Â µ¥ ÇʼöÀûÀÎ ´Ü°è·Î º¸ÀÎ´Ù°í ¸»ÇÑ´Ù. ±×·¯ÇÑ ½ÇÇèÀº ÇÙ ¿Ü±³¸¦ Àç°³ÇÏ·Á´Â ÃßÁøÀ» ´õ¿í º¹ÀâÇÏ°Ô ¸¸µé °Í °°´Ù.
[ap] https://apnews.com/article/technology-seoul-south-korea-nuclear-weapons-north-2784763c3be3b1331432268338eb0799